Abstract: “This study investigates the probability in an inhomogeneous multiple state with three states of the Markovian processes in random transitions method and the human mortality database (HMD) among older male and female aged 65 to 89 for 2009 to 2016. This approach reflects transition rate of disability-dead state in the old males high than in the old females which except for 80-84 and 85-89-year-old males groups. Transition rate of health-disability in the old females high than in the old males. For transition rate of health-dead or disability-dead, the female's transition rate is less than that of the male. This empirical findings also provide one of reference of public long-term care programming or long-term care insurance pricing.”

Keywords: health-dead, health-disability, disability-dead