Abstract: “Lack of recovery of unemployment, more taxes, deterioration of the welfare system, high level of corruption and public debt, and lack of confidence in the Government’s labour are driving a large proportion of the electoral register to support new emergent political parties. In this paper we construct a mathematical model to quantify this electoral change in the Valencian Community. By using a population model and splitting electoral options into five main categories, we modelled the dynamic transits among electoral choices by quantifying the expected electoral support scenario in the Valencian Community for the next local elections.”

Keywords: Mathematical population model, electoral analysis, socio-economic factors.